Updates

A look at the year ahead...

December 22, 2017

It has certainly been an interesting year for the movie business, and I'm not going to go into a retrospective here as there are already too many articles to count dissecting the possible shifts, macro and micro economic forces affecting the movie industry right now. What I'm instead going to focus on is what the upcoming year looks like from a data perspective. Personally, I think (these are not our official company views) that this last year was pretty poor in terms of creative output and not only that but the few movies which were watchable underperformed. Hopefully, this coming year will not be a repeat.

So what are we seeing in terms of the most anticipated movies it looks like the Hans Solo movie tops the charts. Our latest ranking shows it as number 2 after Ocean's 8 but that is just because it recently released a trailer. People seem excited to see this movie. We're also seeing a huge amount of interest across all digital metrics for the upcoming Avengers 3: Part 1 movie. This movie will be huge as it effectively combines the fanbases of 4 different franchises (Spider-Man, GOTG, Thor and Iron Man, I have probably missed some).

Interestingly interest in Natalie Portman's upcoming sci-fi thriller Anhillation is extremely high, yes it releases a trailer recently but its' levels of interest are remaining high. This is great news I think at least as we need more high brow cinema, something to counteract the tedium and predictability of so of the more mainstream movies.

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Looking a little further down the list Mission Impossible 6 is also generating a lot of buzz and is currently ranked 25th, this is very positive for a movie which apart from a few press articles about some of the stunts has not yet released any marketing materials. We can see that fans are really into 6th instalment and let's hope it's as good as the rest.

Deadpool 2 is looking strong and so is the upcoming Cloverfield movie, again another film which has yet to release any marketing materials. This is a great sign for what is likely to be a mid-budget horror movie that will probably make a great return on investment.

X-Men the new mutants has been trending upwards, there has of course been a trailer for this, but as this is a property or subset of a property which the general public is not so familiar with it really looks like it will overperform.

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We should probably add a notable mention for Avatar 2, who knows when it will come out exactly and overall background levels of interest are high (it's 28th based on search data) and even though this will certainly be the event of the season (whichever season it gets released in), who knows even if it will be able to effectively capitalize on its prequel (let's hope so).

That's it, just some random musings for you to think about over Christmas and the Holidays. The team over here are going to be using the relative downtime to polish some new features and are looking forward to a fantastic 2017!

Portent and the Team!

Welcome to the New Portent.IO

December 04, 2017

We're excited to be launching the new and vastly improved Portent.IO. To start with we have refreshed our website, updating our branding to reflect that we're not solely focused on movies but also on TV shows. New iterations of the platform are currently being beta tested and new features will be pushed to live in the coming weeks.

Portent.IO has raised a decent sum of money from our existing investors which have allowed us to grow the team. We've hired a few more developers as well as some more client support and business development members in our Santa Monica Office. The team have been doing a great job and we have an exciting product roadmap ahead....

First and foremost we're rolling out new territories on a weekly basis for both our Film and TV clients and now we cover most major markets including Korea and Japan.

From the product perspective, our new marketing recommendation tool and individual post tracking tool is what we're most excited about. It lets our client's track and compare the performance of every single one of their digital marketing posts.

Lastly, we know that most of our client's like to receive regular reports with key insights and we have built out the infrastructure with some clever AI to at least partially automate these, meaning we can deliver them in a more timely fashion.

That's all for now, if in the meantime you're interested in finding out more just drop us a line.

The Team at Portent.IO

Justice League - Snapchat 15th Nov 2017

November 17, 2017

This week we're going to take a look at Justice League, and in particular at how Snapchat users are engaging with this movie. Now, it goes without saying that it's bound to make a grossly Midaen amount of money regardless of how good or bad the film shakes out to be. So far it's not looking all that good on Rotten Tomatoes (40% at the time of writing), but then as we all know audience scores can often differ wildly from critics' reviews. So lets look at that elusive group of Snapchatters, and at how they are responding to the marketing campaign. Might they be convinced into watching this movie?

Using our tracker, built together with YouGov, we're able to see First Choice and Unaided Awareness not only for standard demographics, but also for custom segments such as Snapchat or Instagram users.

Below we see that although First Choice is high amongst snapchat users for over the last 7 days, it is still lower for JL than for Wonder Woman and almost half of Spider-Man's First Choice value. This indicates that younger, more tech-savvy movie goers are not as interested in JL.

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Now, lets look at First Choice and how it changed over the last 30 days (see the screen shot below). Whereas Wonder Woman and Spider-Man have enjoyed a steady increase in their FC values amongst Snapchatter's as they got closer to their releases, this isn't the case for Justice League. Here, instead, there has been a decline from 20 says ago, with FC values reaching the same values only very recently. This could indicate that Snapchatters, having being exposed to more marketing, were finding the movie less, rather than more, appealing...

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That's all until next time.

Movie Market Update - Nov 9th

November 09, 2017

This week we're going to look at upcoming movies through the lens of Snapchat users specifically (pun most definitely intended). Fortunately, we're actually tracking Awareness (Aided and Unaided) among Snapchat users specifically (as well as among Facebook, Instagram and Twitter users, BTW).

It's shaping up to be quite interesting: Both Daddy's Home 2 and Murder on the Orient Express will be competing for the top slot. The chart above shows unaided awareness of Snapchat users and it's interesting to see:

  • Daddy's Home 2 is slightly above MOTOE.
  • Pitch Perfect is doing well at 2.7% and is still 40 odd days from release.
  • Wonder also seems to be beating expectations across the Snapchat demographic.
  • And of course Star Wars, right at the top followed by Justice League. No surprise there..

Below you can also see unaided awareness among Snapchat users for all upcoming movies:

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Also looking at Justice League vs Thor, Spiderman and IT (all synced by their release dates), we see as per the image below that even though JL will do pretty well in general, it is not performing as well as those comps did at the same relative point in time, across various social demo's.

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That's all for now, if you want to find out more, give us a bell, email etc.

TV - State of the Market - Nov 7th 2017

November 07, 2017

It's been a crazy week for the TV industry this week, House of Cards has been going nuts across the digital signals we track, most of which is due to Kevin Spacey's 'issues'. Whether or not this translates into high viewing figures is hard to tell. Based on the twitter signal, at least, a lot of people are deciding to rewatch the show.

Of course it needs no spelling out that Stranger Things Season 2 is off the charts and we have not seen this level of digital appetite since the Game of Thrones finale last season.

Of new TV shows, SWAT is doing quite well, and The Orville, recently recommissioned for a second season, is still kicking Star Trek's hind parts up and down imperial space. Star Trek had much higher digital anticipation, but seems to have dissapointed both core and general audiences to a degree.

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That's all folks.....